Oracle Signal Overview
Championship Probability
- 1. Eric43%
- 2. Jake33%
- 3. Myles12%
- 4. Adam8%
- 5. Kady1%
- 6. Kyle Sebeysten1%
Probabilities are the Oracle's belief, not official odds. Computed from confidence-weighted projections.
Today's Headlines
Generated from the current board. The Rumor Mill has produced signal. Whether it has produced wisdom remains under review.
Eric holds the projected favorite line at 43% — built on 465 organizer-confirmed points and receipts are crisp.
Certified Goblin Activity: 23 submissions arrived before corroboration could put its shoes on.
YouTube video (5+ min) remains the most underused path. Not reported by anyone yet. 15 points sitting in plain sight. The Oracle is mildly offended nobody has claimed it.
The Rumor Mill
Real projects. Real receipts. Real chaos. Events, reports, receipts, corroborations, and suspiciously confident claims.
Food Engines
Adam · Jun 26
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Manifest Notebooky
Adam · Jun 26
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
River Pig: Chassell Log Jam
Kady · Jun 26
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Independence Engines in Space
Eric · Jun 26
Using a tooling setup to test different tools.
Proof type unknown — could be a demo, could be a screenshot of a dream.
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Epid Continuum
Adam · Jun 26
No receipt yet — the Oracle is taking this one on faith.
Goblin fog. A report without receipts is still a report, but barely.
Qwen Franklin Walked Into the Competition and Told Me to Sit Down
Adam · Jun 26
No receipt yet — the Oracle is taking this one on faith.
Goblin fog. A report without receipts is still a report, but barely.
USA-OS
Kyle Sebeysten · Jun 26
No receipt yet — the Oracle is taking this one on faith.
Goblin fog. A report without receipts is still a report, but barely.
Drafted
Jake · Jun 25
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Sons of Liberty
Jake · Jun 25
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Liberty Fireworks
Jake · Jun 25
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
The Convention
Jake · Jun 25
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Dead Man's Ledger
Adam · Jun 25
No receipt yet — the Oracle is taking this one on faith.
Goblin fog. A report without receipts is still a report, but barely.
MURMURATION
Myles · Jun 25
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
LIBERTY ENGINE
Myles · Jun 25
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
SELF-EVIDENT
Myles · Jun 25
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Zezek: Web Based Goblin Brain
Eric · Jun 25
Web based Goblin Brain.
Proof type unknown — could be a demo, could be a screenshot of a dream.
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Independence Town
Eric · Jun 25
Fireworks Factory Town.
Proof type unknown — could be a demo, could be a screenshot of a dream.
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
The Patriot Gazette
Jake · Jun 24
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Zezek the Goblin
Eric · Jun 24
I trained a corporate goblin to intentionally help plan your day.
Proof type unknown — could be a demo, could be a screenshot of a dream.
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Qwen Franklin
Eric · Jun 24
When competition forces the release.
Proof type unknown — could be a demo, could be a screenshot of a dream.
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
SOLO
Myles · Jun 23
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Summer Job Finder for Kids
Eric · Jun 23
Maybe AI can solve real problems, too.
Proof type unknown — could be a demo, could be a screenshot of a dream.
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
FANS of Independence Engines
Eric · Jun 23
Independence from hot days.
Proof type unknown — could be a demo, could be a screenshot of a dream.
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Minuteman
Jake · Jun 22
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Fireworks Foundry
Jake · Jun 22
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Ride for Liberty
Jake · Jun 22
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Dependency Day
Myles · Jun 22
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Found a Republic
Jake · Jun 21
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Liberty 1776
Jake · Jun 21
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Hall of the Republic
Jake · Jun 21
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
GAME OF LIBERTY
Myles · Jun 21
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
LIBERTY CHIPTUNE
Myles · Jun 21
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
FOUNDING FATHER A.I.
Myles · Jun 21
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
RevereBike / Horse ExciteBike
Eric · Jun 21
A game bringing together multiple ideas seen across competitors in week one.
Proof type unknown — could be a demo, could be a screenshot of a dream.
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Megaman 1776
Eric · Jun 21
Liberty, Founding Fathers vs The Crown.
Proof type unknown — could be a demo, could be a screenshot of a dream.
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Timestorm Baseball
Eric · Jun 21
A Summer into AI build from the weekend.
Proof type unknown — could be a demo, could be a screenshot of a dream.
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
8-Bit Turn-Based RPG
Evan · Jun 21
No receipt yet — the Oracle is taking this one on faith.
Goblin fog. A report without receipts is still a report, but barely.
SKY KING
Heather · Jun 18
No receipt yet — the Oracle is taking this one on faith.
Goblin fog. A report without receipts is still a report, but barely.
Ride, Revere, Ride
Adam · Jun 17
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Postmark 250
Adam · Jun 17
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
The Republic Room
Adam · Jun 17
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Parade Candy Chaos
Kady · Jun 17
Organizer-confirmed. The receipts are crisp.
Kyle Sebeysten named as a competitor entering the fold
Kyle Sebeysten · Jun 17
Organizer signal that a competitor has entered the Summer Into AI fold.
The Oracle has detected a new entrant. It waits for build receipts.
Evan named as a competitor entering the fold
Evan · Jun 17
Organizer signal that a competitor has entered the Summer Into AI fold.
The Oracle has detected a new entrant. It waits for build receipts.
Myles named as a competitor entering the fold
Myles · Jun 17
Organizer signal that a competitor has entered the Summer Into AI fold.
The Oracle has detected a new entrant. It waits for build receipts.
Jake named as a competitor entering the fold
Jake · Jun 17
Organizer signal that a competitor has entered the Summer Into AI fold.
The Oracle has detected a new entrant. It waits for build receipts.
Oracle Standings
Projected standings, not official standings. Confirmed totals are organizer-backed; everything to the right is the Oracle interpreting.
- 1—EEricVerified ContenderConfirmed 465Rating 501Champ % 43%Confidence 99
Based on available events, 465 pts of organizer-confirmed history anchor the floor; +36 momentum from 6 recent builds.
- 2—JJakeVerified ContenderConfirmed 440Rating 470Champ % 33%Confidence 99
Based on available events, 440 pts of organizer-confirmed history anchor the floor; +30 momentum from 5 recent builds.
- 3—MMylesChaos CandidateConfirmed 320Rating 344Champ % 12%Confidence 99
Based on available events, 320 pts of organizer-confirmed history anchor the floor; +24 momentum from 4 recent builds.
- 4—AAdamChaos CandidateConfirmed 270Rating 300Champ % 8%Confidence 74
Based on available events, 270 pts of organizer-confirmed history anchor the floor; +30 momentum from 5 recent builds.
- 5—KKadyStatistical MenaceConfirmed 50Rating 56Champ % 1%Confidence 99
Based on available events, 50 pts of organizer-confirmed history anchor the floor; +6 momentum from 1 recent builds.
- 6—KKyle SebeystenStatistical MenaceConfirmed 40Rating 46Champ % 1%Confidence 20
Based on available events, 40 pts of organizer-confirmed history anchor the floor; +6 momentum from 1 recent builds.
- 7—HHeatherStatistical MenaceConfirmed 25Rating 25Champ % 1%Confidence 20
Based on available events, 25 pts of organizer-confirmed history anchor the floor.
- 8—EEvanStatistical MenaceConfirmed 25Rating 25Champ % 1%Confidence 20
Based on available events, 25 pts of organizer-confirmed history anchor the floor.
Path to Independence
The single highest-leverage move per competitor, drawn from official scoring paths and current event patterns. Not a guarantee — a recommendation with receipts.
10 builds, zero reported writeups. Eric's cleanest points are in the article lane — one Substack or YouTube piece (15 base points) moves the line more than another standalone ship.
Sitting near the top with nobody to thank. Reference another competitor's project next build for a clean +15 the leaders keep ignoring.
Sitting near the top with nobody to thank. Reference another competitor's project next build for a clean +15 the leaders keep ignoring.
Everything is solo so far. A single standalone post about another competitor's project is 5 cheap points and 15 if you build on it.
Proof exists, but it is partial. Pair a public demo with shared code on the next build to jump from 10 to 25 proof points.
Everything is solo so far. A single standalone post about another competitor's project is 5 cheap points and 15 if you build on it.
Proof exists, but it is partial. Pair a public demo with shared code on the next build to jump from 10 to 25 proof points.
Proof exists, but it is partial. Pair a public demo with shared code on the next build to jump from 10 to 25 proof points.
Opportunity Radar
Official point paths ranked by leverage: how much they are worth versus how crowded the lane currently is.
Not reported by anyone yet. 15 points sitting in plain sight.
Lightly used (8/41). Still room to lead.
Not reported by anyone yet. 10 points sitting in plain sight.
Lightly used (1/41). Still room to lead.
Everyone is here. 25 of 41 events. Hard to stand out.
Lightly used (9/41). Still room to lead.
Not reported by anyone yet. 5 points sitting in plain sight.
Not reported by anyone yet. 5 points sitting in plain sight.
Lightly used (1/41). Still room to lead.
Everyone is here. 32 of 41 events. Hard to stand out.
Everyone is here. 31 of 41 events. Hard to stand out.
Competitor Oracle Reports
A full read on each competitor: confirmed points, projected rating, strongest and missing signals, and the path forward.
Recent events
- Independence Engines in SpaceIndependence Engines in SpaceOracle estimate · Jun 26
- Zezek: Web Based Goblin BrainZezek: Web Based Goblin Brain55 pts · Jun 25
- Independence TownIndependence Town55 pts · Jun 25
- Zezek the GoblinZezek the Goblin55 pts · Jun 24
Strongest signals
- 465 organizer-confirmed points across 9 events
- 6 fresh submissions in the last few days
- Receipts are crisp and organizer-backed
- References other competitors (bonus-point behavior)
Missing signals
- No reported article / writeup
- No reported publishing channel (Substack / YouTube / blog)
- Proof type not reported (demo + code receipts)
Why the line moved: Based on available events, 465 pts of organizer-confirmed history anchor the floor; +36 momentum from 6 recent builds.
Why the Oracle likes this: The Oracle currently believes in Eric: 465 organizer-confirmed points and receipts that hold up under a second look. The model is intrigued, and for once it is also convinced.
Where the receipts are thin: Surprisingly solid. The Oracle cannot find an obvious soft spot — though that is sometimes just the fog being polite.
Path to Independence: 10 builds, zero reported writeups. Eric's cleanest points are in the article lane — one Substack or YouTube piece (15 base points) moves the line more than another standalone ship.
Recent events
- DraftedDrafted40 pts · Jun 25
- Sons of LibertySons of Liberty40 pts · Jun 25
- Liberty FireworksLiberty Fireworks40 pts · Jun 25
- The ConventionThe Convention40 pts · Jun 25
Strongest signals
- 440 organizer-confirmed points across 11 events
- 5 fresh submissions in the last few days
- Receipts are crisp and organizer-backed
Missing signals
- No reported article / writeup
Why the line moved: Based on available events, 440 pts of organizer-confirmed history anchor the floor; +30 momentum from 5 recent builds.
Why the Oracle likes this: The Oracle currently believes in Jake: 440 organizer-confirmed points and receipts that hold up under a second look. The model is intrigued, and for once it is also convinced.
Where the receipts are thin: Surprisingly solid. The Oracle cannot find an obvious soft spot — though that is sometimes just the fog being polite.
Path to Independence: Sitting near the top with nobody to thank. Reference another competitor's project next build for a clean +15 the leaders keep ignoring.
Recent events
- MURMURATIONMURMURATION40 pts · Jun 25
- LIBERTY ENGINELIBERTY ENGINE40 pts · Jun 25
- SELF-EVIDENTSELF-EVIDENT40 pts · Jun 25
- SOLOSOLO40 pts · Jun 23
Strongest signals
- 320 organizer-confirmed points across 8 events
- 4 fresh submissions in the last few days
- Receipts are crisp and organizer-backed
Missing signals
- No reported article / writeup
Why the line moved: Based on available events, 320 pts of organizer-confirmed history anchor the floor; +24 momentum from 4 recent builds.
Why the Oracle likes this: The Oracle currently believes in Myles: 320 organizer-confirmed points and receipts that hold up under a second look. The model is intrigued, and for once it is also convinced.
Where the receipts are thin: Surprisingly solid. The Oracle cannot find an obvious soft spot — though that is sometimes just the fog being polite.
Path to Independence: Sitting near the top with nobody to thank. Reference another competitor's project next build for a clean +15 the leaders keep ignoring.
Recent events
- Food EnginesFood Engines40 pts · Jun 26
- Manifest NotebookyManifest Notebooky40 pts · Jun 26
- Epid ContinuumEpid Continuum25 pts · Jun 26
- Qwen FranklinQwen Franklin Walked Into the Competition and Told Me to Sit Down20 pts · Jun 26
Strongest signals
- 270 organizer-confirmed points across 8 events
- 5 fresh submissions in the last few days
Missing signals
- No obvious gaps the Oracle can see
Why the line moved: Based on available events, 270 pts of organizer-confirmed history anchor the floor; +30 momentum from 5 recent builds.
Why the Oracle likes this: The Oracle likes the shape of Adam's play — demo-and-code proof is exactly the high-leverage behavior the field keeps skipping. Whether it compounds is still under review.
Where the receipts are thin: Current reports suggest caution: 3 sit below the "Needs Receipts" line and would fold under scrutiny. None of this means the work isn't real — only that the receipts haven't caught up.
Path to Independence: Everything is solo so far. A single standalone post about another competitor's project is 5 cheap points and 15 if you build on it.
Recent events
- River Pig: Chassell Log JamRiver Pig: Chassell Log Jam25 pts · Jun 26
- Parade Candy ChaosParade Candy Chaos25 pts · Jun 17
Strongest signals
- 50 organizer-confirmed points across 2 events
- Receipts are crisp and organizer-backed
Missing signals
- No reported article / writeup
Why the line moved: Based on available events, 50 pts of organizer-confirmed history anchor the floor; +6 momentum from 1 recent builds.
Why the Oracle likes this: The Oracle currently believes in Kady: 50 organizer-confirmed points and receipts that hold up under a second look. The model is intrigued, and for once it is also convinced.
Where the receipts are thin: Surprisingly solid. The Oracle cannot find an obvious soft spot — though that is sometimes just the fog being polite.
Path to Independence: Proof exists, but it is partial. Pair a public demo with shared code on the next build to jump from 10 to 25 proof points.
Recent events
- USA-OSUSA-OS40 pts · Jun 26
- Kyle Sebeysten named as a competitor entering the foldNot reported · Jun 17
Strongest signals
- 40 organizer-confirmed points across 1 events
Missing signals
- No reported article / writeup
Why the line moved: Based on available events, 40 pts of organizer-confirmed history anchor the floor; +6 momentum from 1 recent builds.
Why the Oracle likes this: The Oracle likes the shape of Kyle Sebeysten's play — demo-and-code proof is exactly the high-leverage behavior the field keeps skipping. Whether it compounds is still under review.
Where the receipts are thin: Current reports suggest caution: 1 sit below the "Needs Receipts" line and would fold under scrutiny. None of this means the work isn't real — only that the receipts haven't caught up.
Path to Independence: Everything is solo so far. A single standalone post about another competitor's project is 5 cheap points and 15 if you build on it.
No receipts on file — claims unverified.
Recent events
- SKY KINGSKY KING25 pts · Jun 18
Strongest signals
- 25 organizer-confirmed points across 1 events
Missing signals
- No reported article / writeup
Why the line moved: Based on available events, 25 pts of organizer-confirmed history anchor the floor.
Why the Oracle likes this: The model is mildly interested. Heather has reported activity worth watching, but the Oracle is reserving judgment until more receipts land.
Where the receipts are thin: Current reports suggest caution: 1 sit below the "Needs Receipts" line and would fold under scrutiny. None of this means the work isn't real — only that the receipts haven't caught up.
Path to Independence: Proof exists, but it is partial. Pair a public demo with shared code on the next build to jump from 10 to 25 proof points.
Recent events
- 8-Bit Turn-Based RPG8-Bit Turn-Based RPG25 pts · Jun 21
- Evan named as a competitor entering the foldNot reported · Jun 17
Strongest signals
- 25 organizer-confirmed points across 1 events
Missing signals
- No reported article / writeup
Why the line moved: Based on available events, 25 pts of organizer-confirmed history anchor the floor.
Why the Oracle likes this: The model is mildly interested. Evan has reported activity worth watching, but the Oracle is reserving judgment until more receipts land.
Where the receipts are thin: Current reports suggest caution: 1 sit below the "Needs Receipts" line and would fold under scrutiny. None of this means the work isn't real — only that the receipts haven't caught up.
Path to Independence: Proof exists, but it is partial. Pair a public demo with shared code on the next build to jump from 10 to 25 proof points.